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Am's avatar

What a difficult paper to write but excellent. I suppose establishment survey is the same as the non farm data but swapping back and fore between them in the post is natural. Yes on a second read it is clearly stated to be so.

Somewhere recently it was said economists have no true theory of inflation. The inherent differences between establushment and household survey suggests the employment data reporting is a problem also. Add to this the fact that the measuring of a recession is up in the air too. It would all suggest a dismal science falling apart with no precise knowledge of its foundational data and so at any given time and even the important times when the various monthly data is released nothing is really known. Is it an assault on economics. I suppose not but it sure makes things confused.

But our host has performed an excellent task highlighting how the consequences are confusing and contradictory with different policy solutions required.

I decided not to edit the typo establushment because it seemed appropriate for the confused state on employment as potentially very embarrassing.

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Daily Chartbook's avatar

Excellent analysis as always!

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