The citizenry of Russia seem to be facing economic pain (e.g. higher car prices, lower production of household appliances, declining real wages due to inflation). In the future, is it possible to design sanctions that hurt the government/military of an aggressive nation without tightening the belt on ordinary citizens? Were efforts to do so taken this time around?
The citizenry of Russia seem to be facing economic pain (e.g. higher car prices, lower production of household appliances, declining real wages due to inflation). In the future, is it possible to design sanctions that hurt the government/military of an aggressive nation without tightening the belt on ordinary citizens? Were efforts to do so taken this time around?
I think this is the core tradeoff of sanctionsтАФdesign something narrow enough to only deal direct damage to oligarchs and the military and you risk being ineffective, increase the effectiveness of the sanctions and you increase the economic collateral damage to civilians.
Most of the sanctions placed on Russia from 2014-2022 were of the narrow category, targeting key industries and the financial assets of wealthy elites. They definitely caused some damage to the economy, but not enough to deter Putin from invading Ukraine again (obviously). So this year's sanctions have been harsher and larger because the stakes were so much higher and because the scope of military action was so much larger.
But yes, Russian civilians are definitely feeling economic pain and I would include them in discussions about the millions suffering in the geopolitical fallout of the invasion.
Your comment makes me think about whether the population is actually of the main addressee of the sanctions -- nudging towards a tipping point of discontent. You even see - tho isolated - examples of Ukrainians protesting against the devastation of the war, not being able to straighten their lives up anywhere near in the horizon. Sustained pressure of sanctions leads to sustained discontent, and pressure on the elites and their cards. A boiling point is always near. This however also hardens their position and their grip.
The purpose of sanctions is to stop the military from resupplying, thatтАЩs all. Trying to punish civilians doesnтАЩt work; thereтАЩs nothing they can do about it anyway except leave Russia.
Means for ends, utility maximisation? there could be strong arguments there. IтАЩm not buying these, but try to put the goggles of the western decision makers, and for eg the approach towards Iran, and the sentiments/calculations behind that.
The citizenry of Russia seem to be facing economic pain (e.g. higher car prices, lower production of household appliances, declining real wages due to inflation). In the future, is it possible to design sanctions that hurt the government/military of an aggressive nation without tightening the belt on ordinary citizens? Were efforts to do so taken this time around?
I think this is the core tradeoff of sanctionsтАФdesign something narrow enough to only deal direct damage to oligarchs and the military and you risk being ineffective, increase the effectiveness of the sanctions and you increase the economic collateral damage to civilians.
Most of the sanctions placed on Russia from 2014-2022 were of the narrow category, targeting key industries and the financial assets of wealthy elites. They definitely caused some damage to the economy, but not enough to deter Putin from invading Ukraine again (obviously). So this year's sanctions have been harsher and larger because the stakes were so much higher and because the scope of military action was so much larger.
But yes, Russian civilians are definitely feeling economic pain and I would include them in discussions about the millions suffering in the geopolitical fallout of the invasion.
Your comment makes me think about whether the population is actually of the main addressee of the sanctions -- nudging towards a tipping point of discontent. You even see - tho isolated - examples of Ukrainians protesting against the devastation of the war, not being able to straighten their lives up anywhere near in the horizon. Sustained pressure of sanctions leads to sustained discontent, and pressure on the elites and their cards. A boiling point is always near. This however also hardens their position and their grip.
The purpose of sanctions is to stop the military from resupplying, thatтАЩs all. Trying to punish civilians doesnтАЩt work; thereтАЩs nothing they can do about it anyway except leave Russia.
Means for ends, utility maximisation? there could be strong arguments there. IтАЩm not buying these, but try to put the goggles of the western decision makers, and for eg the approach towards Iran, and the sentiments/calculations behind that.