In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of b…
In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
Nice work Joseph! This is my take:
In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/market-minutes-and-portfolio-update
Cheer!
F.