Great article Joseph. You should jump on The Closingbell Show to discuss! We have 60,000+ in our community who'd love to learn from you. We recently had on Alex Morris, Ayesha Tariq and Tyler Okland :)
That sucks about covid. I hope you feel better real soon!
I fell ill with covid last week. One day TKO'd, followed by three days of blowing my brains out my nose. On the fifth day I woke up and almost all my symptoms had blown away ('s not a good pun, sorry). There's no one-size-fits-all disease trajectory, but that's how it went for me. Lots of (attempted) sleep and deliberate hydration seemed to help.
Thank you! I think the worst of it came earlier this week and I'm feeling better now (even if I am still coughing up a storm). I'm glad you're feeling better now too!
This reminds me of your article about whether the economy was slowing down a little while ago. Seems like there's good indicators and there's bad indicators all around, and it really depends on how much you weight them.
It strikes me that the recession discussion is simply political semantics, not economics. the larger problem seems to be that the Fed is working with econometric models that are no longer representative of the way the economy actually works and so the outputs of those models will not lead to optimal, or even good, policy decisions. the workings of the economy in 2022 are very different than they were in 2018, let alone the prior 20 years. It wasn't that long ago that the fed felt their key mission failure was too low inflation, a stance I never understood. while they have finally seem to have accepted the reality on the ground (Mary Daly excepted), this implies that all their excruciatingly precise calculations are simply measuring the wrong stuff.
If ever there was an organization ripe for an overhaul, it is the Federal Reserve System.
Actually it is a credibility issue. If economists who previously reported recession on the two quarters rule then moved to the NBER rule then they have changed. I don't know what your position was. But the credility issue is further compounded by this point that no one in the Usa will ever know if its economy is in recession til whenever NBer reports. That kicking the can down the road is a change.
The fact that revisions may change the status later to not a recession has always been the case and covered.
Who propagates the change and gains by it reveals all.
1) What economists have said "oh this was a recession because of the 2Q rule" and then backtracked to the NBER definition?
2) People don't need some institution saying "we're in a recession" because that label doesn't mean anything for them personally. Whatever economic indicators YOU care about are ones YOU are experiencing. Who cares that the national unemployment rate is low when you're paying more at the grocery store or at the pump? Who cares that national inflation is high if you're employed and you're in an area with barely any price increases? I see this talking point all the time and I think the utility of calling a recession for your average consumer is grossly overrated.
3) By your last sentence, you're implying that there's some conspiracy about this, but NBER has been calling recessions for decades. Why are they corrupt *just now*? Why are economists corrupt *just now*?
Great article Joseph. You should jump on The Closingbell Show to discuss! We have 60,000+ in our community who'd love to learn from you. We recently had on Alex Morris, Ayesha Tariq and Tyler Okland :)
Hi! I'd be very happy to discuss—can you shoot me an email (joseph@apricitas.io) so that we can talk privately?
That sucks about covid. I hope you feel better real soon!
I fell ill with covid last week. One day TKO'd, followed by three days of blowing my brains out my nose. On the fifth day I woke up and almost all my symptoms had blown away ('s not a good pun, sorry). There's no one-size-fits-all disease trajectory, but that's how it went for me. Lots of (attempted) sleep and deliberate hydration seemed to help.
Please take care!
Thank you! I think the worst of it came earlier this week and I'm feeling better now (even if I am still coughing up a storm). I'm glad you're feeling better now too!
This reminds me of your article about whether the economy was slowing down a little while ago. Seems like there's good indicators and there's bad indicators all around, and it really depends on how much you weight them.
It strikes me that the recession discussion is simply political semantics, not economics. the larger problem seems to be that the Fed is working with econometric models that are no longer representative of the way the economy actually works and so the outputs of those models will not lead to optimal, or even good, policy decisions. the workings of the economy in 2022 are very different than they were in 2018, let alone the prior 20 years. It wasn't that long ago that the fed felt their key mission failure was too low inflation, a stance I never understood. while they have finally seem to have accepted the reality on the ground (Mary Daly excepted), this implies that all their excruciatingly precise calculations are simply measuring the wrong stuff.
If ever there was an organization ripe for an overhaul, it is the Federal Reserve System.
Actually it is a credibility issue. If economists who previously reported recession on the two quarters rule then moved to the NBER rule then they have changed. I don't know what your position was. But the credility issue is further compounded by this point that no one in the Usa will ever know if its economy is in recession til whenever NBer reports. That kicking the can down the road is a change.
The fact that revisions may change the status later to not a recession has always been the case and covered.
Who propagates the change and gains by it reveals all.
1) What economists have said "oh this was a recession because of the 2Q rule" and then backtracked to the NBER definition?
2) People don't need some institution saying "we're in a recession" because that label doesn't mean anything for them personally. Whatever economic indicators YOU care about are ones YOU are experiencing. Who cares that the national unemployment rate is low when you're paying more at the grocery store or at the pump? Who cares that national inflation is high if you're employed and you're in an area with barely any price increases? I see this talking point all the time and I think the utility of calling a recession for your average consumer is grossly overrated.
3) By your last sentence, you're implying that there's some conspiracy about this, but NBER has been calling recessions for decades. Why are they corrupt *just now*? Why are economists corrupt *just now*?
Are you Joe that posted 26 comments out of 90 odd on Noah Smith.
Nope, I'm pretty sure that Biden's alt though
My friend Tim over at Full Stack Economics actually wrote all about this a while back!
https://fullstackeconomics.com/why-the-government-took-home-prices-out-of-the-consumer-price-index/