I'm not sure that things like Stryker, Himars, Bradley, M777, Excalibur, Javelin, or Switchblade are "mainly old stock things". There are proven production bottlenecks in the US MIC, preventing restarting production, for example the famous Javelin case, or the case with artillery shells. US inability to restart production due to proven deindustrialisation (like in the Javelin case or the artillery shells case) is very different than Jo Politano's simplistic explanation "the US is shipping its old stuff, so its not increasing its military production". In this light, it is interesting that Germany increased military production much more than other western countires, which i think makes sense, since Germany is one of the few western states who are not de-industrialised. Thus, the lack of increased military production in the US also reflects its deindustrialisation and inability to restart military production fast. This is why it will take 5 years for US artillery shell production to increase significantly, in order to meet Ukrainian needs - this is estimated to only happen by 2028.
Outstanding piece. Would love to see follow up analysis on this topic
Thank you Diego!
This such a great run down of the economics of the war. Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed Martin!
Very informative! Really puts the cost in perspective. We should send more aid!
I'm not sure that things like Stryker, Himars, Bradley, M777, Excalibur, Javelin, or Switchblade are "mainly old stock things". There are proven production bottlenecks in the US MIC, preventing restarting production, for example the famous Javelin case, or the case with artillery shells. US inability to restart production due to proven deindustrialisation (like in the Javelin case or the artillery shells case) is very different than Jo Politano's simplistic explanation "the US is shipping its old stuff, so its not increasing its military production". In this light, it is interesting that Germany increased military production much more than other western countires, which i think makes sense, since Germany is one of the few western states who are not de-industrialised. Thus, the lack of increased military production in the US also reflects its deindustrialisation and inability to restart military production fast. This is why it will take 5 years for US artillery shell production to increase significantly, in order to meet Ukrainian needs - this is estimated to only happen by 2028.